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Asteroid 2000 BF19 Has Small Earth Impact Probability In 2022Don YeomansNASA's Near-Earth Object Program Manager February 7, 2000 Italian scientist Andrea Milani has announced that the recently discovered close Earth approaching asteroid 2000 BF19 has a very small Earth impact probability in the year 2022. Because there is only 6 days of observations for this object, the most likely scenario will be that, with additional observations, this impact possibility will go away. However, a call for additional observations has been made to verify this likely result. It should be noted that the quoted impact probability of one in a million is well below the "background level" of the Earth being hit by a comparably sized asteroid that has not yet been discovered. The announcement message from Dr. Milani follows:
The automatic close approach monitoring system, set up as an additional service to the NEODyS system, has detected a case of 'virtual impactor', that is an asteroid for which the presently available observations are not enough to allow us to exclude a future impact. This happens at a probability level of roughly one in a million, in the year 2022, and the asteroid is much less than one kilometer in diameter, thus this should not be rated as a serious concern (the rating in the Torino risk scale is still 0). The impact could result by passing through a keyhole in the 2011 close approach; the encounters would then repeat every 11 years, in a typical case of 'resonant return'.
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